Here\u2019s the U.Michigan sentiment indices for three partisan groupings, vs. the SF Fed News Sentiment index.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> CShapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020)<\/a> Daily News Sentiment Index (black, left scale), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for Democrats (blue), Independents (green), and Republicans (red).\u00a0<\/em> Source: U.Mich, SF Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Here\u2019s the same plot, but using the (inverted) Misery Index (simple sum of y\/y CPI inflation rate and unemployment rate).<\/p>\n Figure 2: <\/strong>Inverted Misery Index (black, left scale), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for Democrats (blue), Independents (green), and Republicans (red).\u00a0<\/em> The Misery Index for January uses Cleveland Fed nowcast for CPI as of 2\/2\/2024. Source: BLS via FRED, Cleveland Fed, U.Mich, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Republican sentiment is flat even as Democratic and Independent sentiment trends up with either news sentiment or inverted Misery.<\/p>\n Note that there is sampling error for each of these indices, so I don\u2019t know if the differences in movements (let alone levels) are statistically significant. What I do know is that the adj.R2 for a regression of Democratic sentiment on news sentiment is about twice that for Republican, and the coefficient is about 50% larger, for the period 2021-2024M01.<\/p>\n More on the indices, see here<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/partisan_umcsent_newspix.png\")
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